NY
NEW YORK TIMES CO (NYT)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 delivered healthy top-line and margin expansion: total revenue rose 7.5% to $726.6M, operating margin expanded ~110 bps to 20.2%, and diluted EPS increased to $0.75; adjusted EPS rose to $0.80 as digital subscription revenue grew 16% and digital ad revenue grew 9.5% .
- Outperformance vs internal guidance: digital-only subscription revenue landed at the high end of the +14–17% range, while Other revenue (+16.3%) exceeded the +11–13% guide; adjusted operating costs grew 6.5%, slightly above the +5–6% guide due to opportunistic marketing spend with attractive ROI .
- Strategic milestones: The Athletic turned AOP positive ($3.5M vs. -$4.4M y/y), ARPU rose 4.4% to $9.65, and Q4 net digital adds were 350k, bringing total subscribers to 11.43M (10.82M digital-only) .
- Capital returns accelerate: Board approved a new $350M Class A repurchase authorization and raised the quarterly dividend by $0.05 to $0.18, reinforcing balance sheet optionality and mid-term capital return commitments .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Digital engine firing: Digital-only subscription revenue +16% y/y to $334.9M, driven by both higher subs and ARPU (+4.4% to $9.65); digital ad revenue +9.5% y/y on expanded supply and improved products .
- The Athletic profitability milestone and portfolio leverage: The Athletic revenue +29% y/y to $49.7M and AOP of $3.5M (from -$4.4M y/y), supported by higher subscription, advertising, and licensing revenue .
- Wirecutter/Other revenue strength: Other revenue +16.3% y/y to $95.0M, aided by “best Cyber Week” and stronger affiliate and licensing—management highlighted Wirecutter’s momentum and broader lifestyle engagement .
- Management tone: “Momentum gives us confidence that we can deliver another year of healthy growth in subscribers, revenue, and profitability, as well as strong free cash flow” (CEO) .
What Went Wrong
- Print pressures persistent: Print ad revenue -16.4% y/y; total ad revenue +0.6% y/y with digital strength partly offset by print declines (luxury/classifieds/entertainment) .
- Cost intensity increased: Adjusted operating costs +6.5% y/y, slightly above guidance as media expenses rose 46% to $46.4M; sales and marketing +21.3% y/y; product development +6.0% .
- Litigation expense: $3.2M pre-tax Generative AI litigation costs in Q4 (special item), a continuing non-operating headwind called out by management .
- Advertiser sensitivity to hard news persists: Management again cited some advertisers’ avoidance of hard news topics, though diversified lifestyle ad supply helped offset .
Financial Results
Consolidated Results vs Prior Year and Prior Quarter
Notes: Q4 2024 special items included $3.2M Generative AI litigation costs and a $3.0M favorable multiemployer pension liability adjustment .
Segment Breakdown (Q4)
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Context vs prior quarter guidance (Q4 actuals vs Q3-provided Q4 guidance):
- Digital-only subscription revenue landed at the high end of +14–17% , Other revenue outperformed (+16.3% vs +11–13%) , adjusted opex slightly exceeded +5–6% guide at +6.5% .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- Strategy and momentum: “Our market-leading news and premium lifestyle products proved more valuable to more people in 2024... momentum gives us confidence that we can deliver another year of healthy growth in subscribers, revenue, and profitability, as well as strong free cash flow.” — Meredith Kopit Levien, CEO .
- Portfolio-driven growth: “Digital subscriber revenue growth accelerated to 16%, driven by increases in both subscribers and ARPU... Bundle continued to be a major engine... Games and The Athletic strategically expanded ad supply... Wirecutter had another great quarter, including its best Cyber Week” .
- Capital allocation: “Generated approximately $381M of free cash flow in 2024... increased the quarterly dividend from $0.13 to $0.18... new share repurchase authorization of $350M” — CFO .
- 2025 outlook: Expect “healthy growth in revenues and AOP as well as continued margin expansion and strong free cash flow,” on path to midterm targets .
Q&A Highlights
- Bundled ARPU sustainability: CFO emphasized confidence in ARPU trajectory driven by step-ups and pricing on tenured subs; focus remains on total digital-only ARPU .
- Marketing ROI/Spend cadence: Management stepped up media where ROI was highly attractive; spend benefits accrue over multiple quarters; majority of subscribers still originate organically .
- Digital ad growth drivers: More ad supply across lifestyle (Games, Athletic), strong demand, and both direct and programmatic channels performing; exploring higher-CPM formats like video and continued audio innovation .
- Balance sheet optionality and M&A: With ~ $912M cash and securities and no debt, NYT maintains high bar for M&A but values flexibility; reiterated plan to return at least 50% of FCF midterm .
- Engagement post-election: Engagement remains high across products; expanding multi-format journalism in video/audio to drive top- and mid-funnel growth .
Estimates Context
- We attempted to retrieve S&P Global (Capital IQ) consensus for Q4 2024 (EPS and revenue) but could not access due to data limits; therefore, beat/miss vs Street is not available at this time. Values would normally be retrieved from S&P Global; unavailable in this instance.
- Internal context: Q4 delivered at the high end of company-provided digital subscription revenue guidance; Other revenue exceeded guidance; adjusted opex slightly above guidance .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Core subscription flywheel strengthening: Net adds (350k), ARPU expansion (+4.4%), and bundle mix shift continue to power double-digit digital subscription revenue growth and margin expansion .
- Advertising resilience via diversification: Lifestyle inventory and ad tech (e.g., Brand Match) offset advertiser caution on hard news; digital ad +9.5% despite print declines .
- The Athletic inflection: Revenue +29% and positive AOP ($3.5M) bolster the bundle’s value and long-term LTV thesis .
- Investment with discipline: Higher Q4 marketing/media spend reflects attractive returns; management expects benefits over subsequent quarters while preserving margin trajectory .
- Capital returns underpin support: New $350M authorization and dividend to $0.18, backed by ~$912M liquidity and robust FCF generation provide downside support and strategic flexibility .
- 1Q25 setup: Guidance implies sustained double-digit digital subscription growth and high-single-digit digital ad growth; watch cost growth (5–6%) and continued ad mix improvement .
- Litigation watch: Generative AI litigation costs are treated as special items; continue to monitor scope and timing for potential expense variability outside core operations .
Appendix: Additional Context (Prior Quarters)
- Q3 2024: Revenue +~7% y/y; AOP margin 16.3%; digital-only subscription revenue +~14% to $322M; total ad $118M; Other ~$69M; adjusted EPS $0.45 .
- Q2 2024: Revenue +5.8% y/y; AOP margin 16.7%; digital-only subscription revenue +12.9% to $304.5M; Athletic revenue +33.4%; noted $2.0M AI litigation special item .
Sources: Company 8-K/Press Release and Earnings Call Transcript for Q4 2024 and prior periods .